Mid-market optimism falls as tariff threats become reality

For the first time in two years, mid-market business leaders are less optimistic about the outlook for their economy over the next 12 months, with 73% expressing optimism (down three points from Q4 2024) as the threat of tariffs become reality in global trade. No surprise then that economic uncertainty remains the leading concern for the mid-market, according to 55% of respondents to Grant Thornton's latest International Business Report (IBR).

There is a significant regional divergence in economic sentiment across the global mid-market suggesting different perspectives of the potential adverse effects of tariffs in different regions. Following changes in political leadership in the United States optimism fell by seven points to 81% among mid-market business leaders, while Canada, one of the primary targets of tariffs, saw optimism plummet 14 points to 55%. There was also a notable 12 point drop in optimism in South America down to 63%. European mid-market confidence remains unchanged at 61%, as was Asia-Pacific's with optimism stable at 74%, while Africa saw optimism increase three points to 71%.

The nuanced outlook is evident as marginally fewer business leaders anticipate increased profitability over the next 12 months, down one point to 63%. While the impact of tariffs remains uncertain and with elevated inflation persisting in some markets, marginally more business leaders plan to increase selling prices, up one point to 54%. Despite the uncertainty a record proportion of mid-market businesses expect to see an increase in revenue growth, up two points to 66%.

Given the trade headwinds, it's not surprising that fewer business leaders expect to increase exports, down two points from its previous peak to 53%. Additionally, fewer plan to expand the number of countries they sell to, down three points to 48%, while those expecting to increase the number of employees focused on non-domestic markets is down four points from its previous peak to 40%. In contrast, more business leaders expect to see an increase in revenues from non-domestic markets, up two points to 52%, possibly indicating they are focusing on the markets they already operate in over expanding into new ones.

Business leaders anticipate very minor changes in operations, with marginally fewer expecting to increase employment over the next 12 months, down two points to 56%. And while those planning to invest in salary increases is down two points, a clear majority of 88% recognise the need to invest in the staff they have.

Business constraints

Following the record number of elections held around the world last year, newly elected governments have introduced policy changes that are influencing financial market trends. While inflation rates are falling in many economies, some nations are facing growth stagnation, leading several central banks to reevaluate their monetary policy and increase or hold interest rates at higher levels for longer. These factors are creating concerns among business leaders about a shortage of available finance, up three points to 46%, and regulation and red tape, up two points to 51%. 

As trade tensions increase, so do business leaders’ concerns about supply chains, with 48% citing it as a concern (up one point from Q4 2024). Equally concerns over competition increased to 53% (up one point), while concerns over cybersecurity remain static at 52%.

After a spike in the previous quarter, concerns over energy costs have decreased to 53% (down two points). Those citing the availability of skilled workers as a concern remain static at 53%, while concerns over labour costs decreased to 51% (down two points).

Investment intentions 

Amid noticeable US policy uncertainty, investment intentions have dropped slightly. Information technology remains the number one investment choice of business leaders, with 68% planning to increase spending over the next 12 months (down one point). Within technology investments AI remains the most significant segment, with a 10 point rise (to 69%) in those planning to invest in this area, a clear indication that AI is starting to become a business reality.

Research and development slowed down significantly, with 58% of respondents expecting to increase investment (down three points from the previous quarter). Fewer business leaders are planning investments in their brand, with 61% planning increases (down one point), while significantly less business leaders are focused on sustainable initiatives with 55% planning to invest in this area (down five points). Investment in plant and machinery saw a significant decrease to 51% (down three points).

However, investment in people remains a focus for many business leaders, with a record 62% planning workforce increases (up one point). Equally, investment in workspaces increased to 55% (up two points) suggesting businesses are more focused on enhancing their operational efficiency and employee satisfaction. 

Peter Bodin, CEO of Grant Thornton International Limited commented: 

"Our latest IBR research highlights a multifaceted global economic environment, where mid-market optimism is tempered by uncertainties in trade policy. Despite these challenges, business leaders remain committed to international business and technology investments, particularly in AI.

The data reveals significant regional variations in economic sentiment, with optimism waning in North and South America, while remaining stable in Europe and increasing in Asia and Africa, reflecting the expected impact of US trade policies and economic conditions. It will be interesting to see how sentiment changes as businesses react to these policies.

Investment in sustainability initiatives has notably declined, yet the emphasis on enhancing operational efficiency and workforce development remains robust. This shift indicates that businesses are prioritising immediate operational needs over long-term sustainability goals in response to current economic pressures.

In these uncertain times, it is crucial for mid-market businesses to remain agile and strategically assess the global and regional impact of trade policies and geopolitical tensions. By focusing on core strengths and adapting to evolving market dynamics, businesses can navigate challenges and seize growth opportunities."